A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but very few politicians or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Both authors two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments range over identity markers, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will win here and somebody will eventually lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
